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Preview: Iowa State at Kansas

Jan 23, 2008

Iowa State at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

	Kansas	Iowa State
Performance Indicators
Record	18-0	12-6
AP Rank	2	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	1	103
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	1	108
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	@ Missouri (#22) W 76-70 vs Arizona (#24) W 76-72 (OT)	vs Missouri (#22) W 72-67 vs Purdue (#55) W 83-80
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current from Pomeroy , end-of-season forecast from RPIForecast .)	Current: 3 Forecast: 3	Current: 109 Forecast: 137
Prediction Models
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 23.5 Est. Projection: 81-58
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 26.0
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 25.6
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 81-54 99% chance of victory
Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.)	Win by 27.6 99.98% chance of victory
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7)	Win by 25.4 Est. Projection: 81-56

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Conner Teahan*	12.65	13.84
Mario Chalmers	8.06	98.97
Darnell Jackson	7.29	81.47
Cole Aldrich	5.91	24.51
Sasha Kaun	5.00	39.30
Brandon Rush	4.80	53.49
Tyrel Reed	4.80	12.41
Darrell Arthur	4.18	44.14
Jeremy Case*	4.13	9.66
Russell Robinson	4.11	50.76
Rodrick Stewart	3.66	24.39
Brennan Bechard*	3.47	1.21
Sherron Collins	2.80	20.73
Matt Kleinmann*	2.20	1.36
Brad Witherspoon*	-5.76	-1.96
Chase Buford*	-13.24	-4.76

* Rating not based on enough data.

Iowa State

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Clayton Vette*	6.81	4.83
Cameron Lee*	5.13	5.16
Brock Jacobson*	4.27	2.25
Marcus Brister*	4.00	0.64
Jiri Hubalek	3.88	37.05
Mark Currie*	3.61	1.82
Mike Smith*	3.17	1.60
Rahshon Clark	3.10	40.02
Craig Brackins	2.52	29.76
Charles Boozer	1.91	3.62
Wesley Johnson	1.47	12.62
Cory Johnson	0.32	1.29
Bryan Petersen	-0.68	-7.54
Alex Thompson	-2.05	-11.31
Diante Garrett	-2.58	-21.50
Sean Haluska	-6.24	-35.81

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

The Cyclones of Iowa State have relied mostly on the contributions of frontcourt players Jiri Hubalek, Rahshon Clark and Craig Brackins. Hubalek shoots 51 eFG% and averages 12 PTS and 7 REB. Though he doesn't shoot much from deep, he is 7-of-15 on the year from 3FG. Hubalek has strong rebounding numbers and rarely turns the ball over. He is essentially tied with Wesley Johnson for highest possession usage on the team, so his performance will matter in most games. Clark has had a solid offensive performance, mostly by virtue of 61 eFG% shooting, although he has done a little bit of everything. Brackins has shot a solid 54 eFG% with very few turnovers and is the second-leading scorer on the team behind Wesley Johnson.

Wesley Johnson uses lots of possessions, although he does shoot a respectable 53 eFG%. The problem is that he just doesn't do enough of the other stuff besides scoring. It has been a really tough season for Sean Haluska, Diante Garrett and Alex Thompson.

For Kansas, Mario Chalmers continues his meteoric rise in ratings. He has now crossed the +8.00 threshold after his masterful performance in KU's victory at Missouri. Darnell Jackson is not far behind with an efficiency rating that ranks among the handful of the best any KU player has had this decade. KU's frontcourt dominates much of the top half of the player ratings, with Darrell Arthur surprisingly being the least efficient. This game presents Brandon Rush an opportunity to get back in the groove after a horrid shooting night against Missouri. Given an expected blowout margin, it will also be a chance for players like Tyrel Reed to get back on the court. Sherron Collins had a solid game against Missouri and may begin to emerge as a threat if he can just shoot a little better and more consistently.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Iowa State
Offense #4 - Defense #2 - Tempo #96 Excellent shooting (#3 eFG%, #3 on 2FG%) and strong shooting eFG% defense (#22) Rank #23 in forcing TO's, including #1 in STL pct, all while ranking #25 in avoiding own TO Limit opp OREB% well (#38) Limit opponents' use of FT line (#34) Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#9) Dominate the BLK category (#2 limit own, #4 block opp) Very high % of FG's assisted (#35) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 20) Mario Chalmers - #6 eFG%, #189 AST rate, #9 STL% Russell Robinson - #170 FT Rate, #31 STL% Darrell Arthur - #67 BLK% Darnell Jackson - #4 eFG%, #131 OREB%, #125 DREB% Sasha Kaun - #43 BLK% Brandon Rush - #127 TO rate	Offense #109 - Defense #103 - Tempo #248 Hold down opp eFG% (#50) Rarely force TO's (#286) Keep opp off FT line (#14 FT Rate defense) Shoot low 3FG% (#287) Limit opp 2FG% (#23) Avoid getting own 2FGA blocked (#40) Rarely STL (#282) and lose ball to STL too often (#269) Great job of limiting opp % of FG's assisted (#5) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 20) Rahshon Clark - #90 eFG% Craig Brackins - #141 TO Rate Jiri Hubalek - #103 OREB%, #66 DREB%, #74 TO Rate Diante Garrett - #195 AST Rate, #136 STL%
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's. On offense, ISU relies more on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's, while its opponents rely more than usual on 3FG's but an incredibly low amount on FT's.

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game

Projected Boxscore

Kansas	82
Iowa State	54

Kansas
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	24	2	6	2	4	1	2	11	1	3	4	2	1	1	1
Cole Aldrich	9	1	3	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	3	0	1	0	1
Conner Teahan	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Darnell Jackson	23	5	5	0	0	2	3	12	3	5	8	1	1	1	1
Darrell Arthur	22	5	10	0	1	2	3	12	2	4	6	0	2	1	1
Jeremy Case	6	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Mario Chalmers	27	2	4	2	4	2	2	12	1	2	3	4	1	3	0
Rodrick Stewart	15	1	3	0	1	1	1	3	2	1	3	2	1	1	0
Russell Robinson	26	1	2	1	3	1	2	6	1	2	3	4	2	2	0
Sasha Kaun	16	3	4	0	0	2	3	8	2	2	4	0	1	1	1
Sherron Collins	21	2	4	1	4	1	1	8	0	2	2	2	1	2	0
Tyrel Reed	8	1	1	1	2	0	0	5	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
TOTALS	200	23	43	8	21	12	18	82	13	24	37	17	11	12	5

Iowa State
PLAYER	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Craig Brackins	30	3	7	1	2	2	3	11	1	3	4	1	2	0	1
Jiri Hubalek	24	3	7	0	1	3	4	9	2	4	6	1	2	0	0
Wesley Johnson	28	2	5	2	5	2	3	12	1	2	3	1	3	1	0
Rahshon Clark	33	2	4	1	2	2	2	9	2	3	5	1	2	1	1
Diante Garrett	21	1	4	0	1	2	2	4	0	2	2	2	3	1	0
Bryan Petersen	28	0	0	1	2	1	1	4	0	2	2	2	2	1	0
Cory Johnson	6	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	2	0	1	0	0
Alex Thompson	14	1	2	0	1	0	1	2	1	2	3	1	1	0	0
Sean Haluska	16	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0
TOTALS	200	13	32	5	16	13	17	54	8	20	28	10	17	4	2

Projection Summary

	Projection	Comments
OVERALL RESULTS
Final Score	KU 82-54
Tempo (# poss)	67
PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played)
Leading Scorers	KU - Arthur/Chalmers/Jackson Opp - W. Johnson, Brackins
Highest cPSAN (game impact)	KU - Chalmers Opp - Clark
Highest cPSAN70 (efficiency)	KU - Jackson Opp - Clark
Highest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Kaun, Jackson Opp - Petersen, Clark	Jackson is projected to have a monster game.
Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date	KU - Arthur, Stewart Opp - Haluska, Hubalek