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Preview: Florida Atlantic at Kansas Print E-mail
Nov 26, 2007

Florida Atlantic at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

 KansasFlorida Atlantic

Performance Indicators

  
Record5-0
1-5
AP Rank4
NR
Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)		10270
Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)		4
257
Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)		vs Louisiana-Monroe (#147) W 107-78
vs Arizona (#76) W 76-72 (OT)
vs Stetson (#297) W 68-62
RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength)		 57 253

Predictions
Different techniques' predictions for this game.

  
Vegas OddsmakersWin by 33
Est. Projection: 90-57
 
Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings)		Win by 32.9
(Not enough data for good accuracy) 		 
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)Win by 31.5
(Not enough data for good accuracy)
 
Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)

Win 98-56
(Not enough data for good accuracy)

 
Last 10 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 7 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 3 other most recent games regardless of location.  If 7 venue-appropriate games not available, fewer than 10 total games are used.)		Win by 36.7
99.9% chance of victory
(Not enough data for good accuracy) 		 
Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)

Win by 34.8
Est. Projection: 93-58
(Not enough data for good accuracy)

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season


Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

 

PLAYERePSAN70ePSAN
Conner Teahan*17.346.09
Brennan Bechard*11.682.05
Tyrel Reed (OUT)6.129.62
Rodrick Stewart5.8914.99
Brandon Rush5.709.45
Darnell Jackson4.4212.18
Mario Chalmers4.3316.03
Sherron Collins (OUT)
4.276.02
Sasha Kaun3.809.65
Darrell Arthur3.5512.31
Cole Aldrich3.283.81
Matt Kleinmann*2.030.56
Russell Robinson1.123.89
Jeremy Case*-5.24-4.40
Brad Witherspoon*-14.73-2.23
Chase Buford*-18.18-3.20

 

 

* Rating not based on enough data.

Florida Atlantic

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

  

PLAYERcPSAN70cPSAN
Brett Royster3.386.64
Carlos Monroe2.7813.11
Jeff Parmer0.662.17
Paul Graham III (OUT)-0.48-1.67
Derrick Simmons-1.46-3.98
Carderro Nwoji-2.31-10.60
Sean Alarcon-4.10-7.64
Xavier Perkins-5.73-16.07
James Staten*-6.99-0.87
Eni Cuka*-7.07-4.56
Seydou Kone*-7.22-5.92
Sanchez Hughley-7.82-20.39
Enrique Rodriguez*-8.75-1.09

 

* Rating not based on enough data.


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Monroe and Royster are FAU's only positive contributors so far.  This is really not a game for which it's worth analyzing player ratings.

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Florida Atlantic

  • Offense #21 - Defense #17 - Tempo #104
  • Nation's 4th best eFG%, including #43 3FG%, #4 2FG%
  • Dominate the TO category (#32 limit own, #8 forced)
  • Terrible FT% (#282)
  • Dominate the BLK category (#9 limit own, #8 block opp)
  • Rank #4 in STL rate
  • Very high % of FG's assisted (#15)

Individual Player Highlights: (not yet listed)

  • Offense #235 - Defense #282 - Tempo #98
  • Turn it over often (#262) but rarely force TO's (#318)
  • Poor OREB% (#252)
  • Great use of FT line (#26 FT rate) but allow high FT Rate (#276)
  • Give up too high 2FG% (#250)
  • Lose ball to STL too often (#267) and rarely STL back (#320)
  • Rarely BLK opponent (#248)

Individual Player Highlights: (not yet listed)

Scoring Distribution:
  • On offense, KU relies more on 2FG's but not so much on FT's, while its opponents rely most heavily on 3FG's.
  • On offense, FAU relies more on FT's but not on 3FG's, while its opponents rely more on FT's but not on 2FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

 

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for KansasNo Clear AdvantageClear Advantage for FAU
Kansas TO rate**  
FAU % Poss STL by Opp**  
Kansas PTS/Poss**  
FAU TO rate**  
Kansas 2pt FG%**  
Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**  
Kansas eFG%**  
FAU PTS/Poss**  
Kansas % Poss STL by Opp  
FAU OREB  
Kansas 3pt FG%**  
FAU % own 2FGA's blocked**  
 FAU 2pt FG% 
 Kansas FT Rate 
 FAU eFG% 
 Kansas FT% 
 Kansas OREB 
 FAU FT% 
 FAU FT Rate 
 FAU 3pt FG% 

 

************************** 

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted
 
FAU will have above avg % of FG's assisted
Expect uptempo game

 

 

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)


 

Projected Boxscore

(Not enough game data for accuracy)

 

Kansas 93                            
Fla Atlantic 58                            
                               
Kansas                              
NAME MIN 2FGM 2FGA 3FGM 3FGA FTM FTA PTS OREB DREB TREB AST TO STL BLK
Brandon Rush 23 2 5 3 4 2 2 15 1 4 5 2 1 1 1
Cole Aldrich 10 1 3 0 0 1 2 3 1 2 3 0 0 0 0
Darnell Jackson 24 4 7 0 1 2 3 10 3 3 6 1 2 1 1
Darrell Arthur 30 6 11 0 1 4 6 16 3 4 7 1 2 2 1
Jeremy Case 7 1 1 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
Mario Chalmers 32 3 5 3 6 3 3 18 0 2 2 7 2 3 0
Rodrick Stewart 22 3 4 1 2 2 3 11 2 2 4 4 1 1 0
Russell Robinson 30 1 2 2 7 2 3 10 1 2 3 5 2 2 0
Sasha Kaun 22 3 4 0 0 2 5 8 2 2 4 1 1 1 1
TOTALS 200 24 42 9 23 18 27 93 13 21 34 22 12 11 4
                               
Fla Atlantic                              
NAME MIN 2FGM 2FGA 3FGM 3FGA FTM FTA PTS OREB DREB TREB AST TO STL BLK
Carlos Monroe 34 7 12 0 0 4 7 18 2 10 12 0 3 1 1
Carderro Nwoji 33 1 3 1 4 2 3 7 0 2 2 5 3 0 0
Jeff Parmer 24 2 3 1 3 1 1 8 1 2 3 3 3 2 0
Xavier Perkins 20 1 2 0 1 3 4 5 1 1 2 1 3 1 0
Derrick Simmons 19 1 2 0 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 0 2 1 0
Brett Royster 14 2 2 0 0 0 1 4 1 2 3 0 1 0 1
Sanchez Hughley 19 0 2 1 4 1 1 4 0 1 1 0 1 1 0
Sean Alarcon 13 0 0 1 3 0 0 3 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
Eni Cuka 7 0 1 1 1 1 1 4 0 1 1 0 3 0 0
Seydou Kone 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0
Enrique Rodriguez 5 1 3 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
James Staten 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 4 0 0
TOTALS 200 15 31 5 17 13 20 58 6 25 31 12 24 6 2

 

 

Projected Four Factor Performance

 

  • eFG% - Advantage KU 58-47%.
  • TURNOVERS - Advantage KU 32-16%
  • OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - Advantage KU 34-22%
  • FREETHROW RATE (FTM/FGA) - Advantage KU 28-27%
  • OVERALL - Shooting and turnovers are the biggest drivers of a projected Kansas blowout.

 

Kansas Players Projection

 

  • Highest Game Impact (cPSAN): Mario Chalmers
  • Highest Efficiency (cPSAN70): Brandon Rush
  • Most likely to play more efficiently than season-to-date (projected cPSAN70 - season cPSAN70): Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush
  • Most likely to play less efficiently than season-to-date: Cole Aldrich, Jeremy Case

Sports and Numbers Projection: Kansas wins 93-58