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Preview: Eastern Washington at Kansas

Dec 4, 2007

Eastern Washington at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

	Kansas	Eastern Washington
Performance Indicators
Record	7-0	3-6
AP Rank	3	NR
Pomeroy Rating (Updated daily)	8	250
Consensus Ranking (Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)	2	263
Best opponents defeated this season (Ranking from Pomeroy)	@ Southern California (#23) W 59-55 vs Arizona (#33) W 76-72 (OT)	@ UMKC (#258) W 65-54 vs UC-Riverside (#306) W 59-51
RPI (Used for schedule strength, not team strength)	23	244
Predictions Different techniques' predictions for this game.
Vegas Oddsmakers	Win by 36 Est. Projection: 85-49
Prediction Tracker (Average of several power ratings)	Win by 31.4 (Not enough data for good accuracy)
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)	Win by 28.5 (Not enough data for good accuracy)
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)	Win 81-47 100% chance of victory
Last 10 Games (Venue Adjusted) (Uses team performance and consistency over last 7 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 3 other most recent games regardless of location. If 7 venue-appropriate games not available, other recent games used to make 10 total.)	Win by 33.1 99.998% chance of victory (Not enough data for good accuracy)
Weighted Average of All Models Above (30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)	Win by 33.1 Est. Projection: 82-49 (Not enough data for good accuracy)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	ePSAN70	ePSAN
Conner Teahan*	16.15	9.14
Tyrel Reed	6.37	9.61
Darnell Jackson	5.95	24.84
Mario Chalmers	5.93	30.60
Rodrick Stewart	4.61	17.64
Sherron Collins (OUT)	4.44	5.98
Brandon Rush	4.35	12.37
Cole Aldrich	4.22	6.56
Sasha Kaun	3.81	12.97
Darrell Arthur	3.50	15.74
Brennan Bechard*	3.00	0.81
Jeremy Case*	1.49	1.77
Matt Kleinmann*	1.12	0.41
Russell Robinson	1.07	5.37
Brad Witherspoon*	-4.25	-0.94
Chase Buford*	-19.95	-4.89

* Rating not based on enough data.

Eastern Washington

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER	cPSAN70	cPSAN
Jack Loofburrow*	3.59	1.36
Kellen Williams	2.49	17.95
Marcus Hinton	0.24	1.10
Gary Gibson	-1.11	-5.40
Milan Stanojevic	-1.34	-6.29
Trey Gross	-1.94	-11.41
Adris DeLeon	-2.37	-10.49
Brandon Moore	-3.71	-15.96
Matt Brunell	-4.24	-15.86

* Rating not based on enough data.

Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

Kellen Williams is the Eagles' only positively rated player based on performance to date. Adris DeLeon uses a disproportionately high percentage of his team's possessions, so his play may dictate how big a blowout this will be. In any event, it will be a complete mismatch in player talent levels.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings Note: There are 341 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)
Kansas	Eastern Washington
Offense #29 - Defense #5 - Tempo #123 Nation's 7th best eFG%, including #6 2FG% Rank #11 in forcing TO's Rank #50 in limiting opp OREB% Limit opp 2FG% very well (#34) Terrible FT% (#295) Dominate the BLK category (#12 limit own, #13 block opp) Rank #8 in STL rate Very high % of FG's assisted (#39) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Dec 2) Mario Chalmers - #51 eFG%, #100 STL rate Darrell Arthur - #100 BLK rate Darnell Jackson - #81 OREB% Rodrick Stewart - #138 AST rate Sasha Kaun - #32 BLK rate	Offense #294 - Defense #167 - Tempo #239 Only positive is #50 FT% Individual Player Highlights: (thru Dec 2) Kellen Williams - #130 DREB% Adris DeLeon - #65 AST rate
Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies more on 2FG's but unusually low amount on FT's, while its opponents rely most heavily on 3FG's. On offense, EWU relies much more on 3FG's at the expense of 2FG's, while its opponents rely mostly on 3FG's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category
Clear Advantage for Kansas	No Clear Advantage	Clear Advantage for EWU
Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**
EWU % own 2FGA's blocked**
EWU 2pt FG%**
EWU PTS/Poss**
EWU OREB**
Kansas eFG%**
Kansas 3pt FG%
EWU eFG%
Kansas 2pt FG%**
Kansas TO rate
Kansas PTS/Poss**
EWU TO rate**
EWU % Poss STL by Opp**
	EWU FT Rate
	Kansas OREB
	Kansas % Poss STL by Opp
		EWU FT%**
	EWU 3pt FG%
	Kansas FT%
	Kansas FT Rate

**************************

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted

EWU will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

EWU will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Expect average-paced game

Game Projections

(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Manual Adjustment	Rationale
Sherron Collins to play 0 minutes for KU	Injured

Projected Boxscore

(Not enough game data for accuracy)

Kansas	81
E Washington	49

Kansas
NAME	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Brandon Rush	21	2	5	2	4	1	2	11	1	3	4	1	1	1	1
Cole Aldrich	9	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	1	1	1
Conner Teahan	6	0	0	2	2	1	1	7	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
Darnell Jackson	23	4	6	0	1	2	3	10	3	4	7	1	1	1	2
Darrell Arthur	25	5	9	0	1	2	4	12	2	5	7	1	2	1	3
Jeremy Case	8	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	0	1	1	2	1	0	0
Mario Chalmers	28	2	4	2	4	2	3	12	0	3	3	4	2	2	0
Rodrick Stewart	21	2	4	0	1	1	2	5	2	2	4	4	2	1	0
Russell Robinson	28	1	2	1	4	2	2	7	1	2	3	4	2	2	0
Sasha Kaun	19	2	3	0	0	2	5	6	2	3	5	0	1	1	3
Tyrel Reed	12	0	1	1	2	0	0	3	0	1	1	2	0	1	0
TOTALS	200	20	37	9	20	14	23	81	12	27	39	19	13	11	10

E Washington
NAME	MIN	2FGM	2FGA	3FGM	3FGA	FTM	FTA	PTS	OREB	DREB	TREB	AST	TO	STL	BLK
Kellen Williams	36	2	6	1	2	1	2	8	2	7	9	1	2	2	0
Trey Gross	29	1	4	1	3	2	3	7	0	2	2	2	4	1	0
Adris DeLeon	25	1	5	1	4	3	3	8	1	3	4	2	3	1	0
Marcus Hinton	23	1	3	0	1	4	4	6	1	3	4	1	3	1	0
Milan Stanojevic	23	0	1	2	4	0	0	6	0	2	2	2	1	1	0
Gary Gibson	24	1	2	1	2	1	2	6	0	2	2	1	3	1	0
Brandon Moore	21	2	5	0	0	1	2	5	1	3	4	0	3	1	0
Matt Brunell	19	1	3	0	1	1	1	3	1	2	3	0	2	1	1
TOTALS	200	9	29	6	17	13	17	49	6	24	30	9	21	9	1

Projected Four Factor Performance

eFG% - Advantage KU 59-39%.
TURNOVERS - Advantage KU 31-19%
OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - Advantage KU 33-18%
FREETHROW RATE (FTM/FGA) - Advantage EWU 28-25%
OVERALL - Complete domination by KU expected, although the FT line should be slightly in favor of the visitors.

Player Ratings Projections

Statistic (minimum 10 MIN projected playing time)	Kansas	EWU
Highest Game Impact (cPSAN)	Darnell Jackson	Kellen Williams
Highest Efficiency (cPSAN70)	Darnell Jackson	Kellen Williams
Highest cPSAN70 compared to season avg	Russell Robinson, Sasha Kaun	Milan Stanojevic, Matt Brunell
Lowest cPSAN70 compared to season avg	Rodrick Stewart, Tyrel Reed	Trey Gross, Kellen Williams