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Preview: Baylor at Kansas |
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Feb 9, 2008 |
Baylor at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)| | Kansas | Baylor
| Performance Indicators
| | | | Record | 22-1
(Home: 15-0)
| 17-4
(Road: 4-1)
| | AP Rank | 4
| NR
(32nd most votes)
| Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily) | 1
| 43
| Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls) | 3
| 32
| Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy) | vs Arizona (#21) W 76-72 (OT)
@ USC (#22) W 59-55 | @ Texas A&M (#13) W 116-110 5OT
vs Notre Dame (#23) W 68-64 | RPI
(Used for schedule strength, not team strength. Current from Pomeroy , end-of-season forecast from RPIForecast .) | Current: 5
Forecast: 5 | Current: 31 Forecast: 38 | Prediction Models | | | | Vegas Oddsmakers | Win by 16.5
Est. Projection: 85-68 | | Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings) | Win by 17.1
| | | Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) | Win by 18.2 | | Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted) | Win 88-66
96% chance of victory
| | Last 7 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 5 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 2 other most recent games regardless of location.) | Win by 17.8
99.84% chance of victory | | Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 7) | Win by 17.6
Est. Projection: 85-68 | |
Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com) | Kansas | Baylor | Offense #1 - Defense #2 - Tempo #75
Excellent shooting (#5 eFG%, #3 on 2FG% and #39 on 3FG%) and strong shooting eFG% defense (#17)
Rank #10 in STL pct, but also rank #34 in avoiding own TO
Limit opp OREB% (#22)
Limit opponents' use of FT line (#41)
Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#11)
Dominate the BLK category (#2 limit own, #3 block opp)
Take very few 3FG as % of total FGA (#275)
Very high % of FG's assisted (#37) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 3) Mario Chalmers - #21 eFG%, #165 AST rate, #18 STL%
Russell Robinson - #135 FT Rate, #33 STL%
Darrell Arthur - #185 OREB%, #59 BLK%
Darnell Jackson - #7 eFG%, #173 OREB%, #158 DREB%
Sasha Kaun - #50 BLK% | Offense #39 - Defense #64 - Tempo #26
Limit opp eFG% (#47), including #23 for 2FG%
Great at avoiding own TO (#20), including avoiding STL on offense (#13)
Good FT% (#40)
Very low % of FG's assisted (#324), while opp have very high % (#13) Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 3) Curtis Jerrells - #134 TO Rate
Kevin Rogers - #111 DREB% | Scoring Distribution: On offense, KU relies heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's.
On offense, BU more on 3FG's at the expense of 2FG's, while its opponents are fairly balanced. |
Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) | ** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category | | Clear Advantage for Kansas | No Clear Advantage | Clear Advantage for Baylor | | Baylor OREB** | | | | Kansas 3pt FG%** | | | | Baylor % own 2FGA's blocked** | | | | Kansas TO rate** | | | | Baylor FT Rate** | | | | | Baylor 2pt FG% | | | | Kansas PTS/Poss | | | | Baylor eFG% | | | | Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked | | | | Kansas eFG% | | | | Baylor PTS/Poss | | | | Baylor FT% | | | | Kansas OREB | | | | Kansas 2pt FG% | | | | Kansas FT Rate | | | | Baylor % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Baylor 3pt FG% | | | | Kansas % Poss STL by Opp | | | | Kansas FT% | | | | Baylor TO rate | | ************************************************************* | Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt | | Baylor will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt | | Baylor will have below avg % of FG's assisted | | Expect uptempo game | |
Game Projections(Not a prediction. Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.) No manual adjustments to projections were made for this game Projected Boxscore | Kansas | 87 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Baylor | 71 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Kansas | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Brandon Rush | 28 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | | Cole Aldrich | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | | Darnell Jackson | 26 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | | Darrell Arthur | 23 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | | Jeremy Case | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Mario Chalmers | 30 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | | Rodrick Stewart | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | | Russell Robinson | 28 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | | Sasha Kaun | 14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | | Sherron Collins | 23 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Tyrel Reed | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | TOTALS | 200 | 22 | 43 | 8 | 19 | 19 | 28 | 87 | 13 | 28 | 41 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 7 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Baylor | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | PLAYER | MIN | 2FGM | 2FGA | 3FGM | 3FGA | FTM | FTA | PTS | OREB | DREB | TREB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | | Curtis Jerrells | 37 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | | Kevin Rogers | 33 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | | Henry Dugat | 31 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | | LaceDarius Dunn | 25 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Aaron Bruce | 30 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Tweety Carter | 29 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | | Mamadou Diene | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | | TOTALS | 200 | 16 | 38 | 8 | 22 | 15 | 21 | 71 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 3 | Projection Summary | | Projection | Comments | OVERALL RESULTS | | Final Score | KU 87-71 | | Tempo (# poss)
| 75 | | FOUR FACTORS ADVANTAGES
| | eFG% | KU 55-47% | | | TO Rate (lo better) | KU 21-17% | | | O-Reb% | KU 36-26%
| | | FT Rate | KU 31-25% | | Four Factors Overall
| Advantage to KU in all four factors, with the heaviest in eFG% should lead to comfortable victory. |
| PLAYER PROJECTIONS (10+ min played) | | Leading Scorers | KU - Arthur/Chalmers/Jackson Opp - Jerrells, Rogers | | Highest cPSAN
(game impact)
| KU - Jackson Opp - Rogers | | Highest cPSAN70
(efficiency)
| KU - Jackson Opp - Diene | | | Highest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Kaun, Arthur Opp - Diene, Bruce | | | Lowest efficiency vs season-to-date | KU - Rush, Chalmers Opp - Carter, Dunn
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Sports and Numbers ProjectionKansas wins 87-71(all prediction models included) |
Pre-Game Keys to Watch For | Keys to Watch For | Metric | Result | Edge (Comments) | | One of the biggest correlates of scoring efficiency for BU will be eFG% based on both teams' trends. Jerrells, Rogers and Dunn shoot often and could determine the eFG% of BU as a whole. | Jerrells, Rogers and Dunn to combine for at least 52 eFG% shooting
| | | | Even though KU is deep and athletic, the season trends show that KU's offensive efficiency suffers when the pace increases. Meanwhile, BU's defense improves. A high tempo could favor BU to some extent. | Game tempo 76 possessions or higher per team | | | | FT Rate is a significant indicator for KU's offense and defense. On offense, KU's best FT Rate players are Chalmers, Robinson, Jackson. For Baylor, it's Jerrells and Diene. | Chalmers, Jackson, Robinson to combine for at least 12 FTA. Jerrells and Diene to be held to fewer than 8 FTA. | | |
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