Sports and Numbers

Arizona at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Sophomore 6-9 F Jordan Hill leads the ratings for the Wildcats with the highest efficiency and total impact thus far this season.  He doesn't get all the attention that Jerryd Bayless gets, but he plays much more efficiently.  Hill has shot 78 percent from the field in his first four games, while averaging 13 PTS, 4.5 REB, 1 BLK in only 24 MIN/gm.  If Arizona were performing better as a team, Hill's overall ratings would be much more in line with KU's top players.

The other two major contributors with good efficiency have been Daniel Dillon and Chase Budinger.  Dillon's 3FG shooting makes his overall eFG% an impressive 57.5%, while he averages 2.3 STL.  Budinger is the second-leading scorer and does a bit of everything, shooting 53.1 eFG% with 16.5 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST (2.4:1 AST:TO), and 16-of-16 from the FT line.  (KU's next free throw coach?)

Jerryd Bayless gets a ton of attention as the leading scorer (18 PTS) on 54.5 eFG%, and as set-up man (6 AST) in over 34 MIN/gm.  The problem is that Arizona does a terrible job of rebounding their missed shots.  That makes a missed shot a much bigger penalty than for other teams.  Bayless has a ton of missed shots, even though he is shooting at a decent average.  Thus, the net overall contribution of his field-goal shooting (2FG and 3FG) are just under zero.  Once you factor that in, his AST and DREB are what drive his rating.  And with Arizona's lackluster team performance, all that playing time doesn't reflect well on Bayless.

The Kansas attack is somewhat more balanced.  The top two contributors are Jackson and Chalmers, with Jackson having the much more effiicient season thus far.  The freshman Reed is having an outstanding start to his career, while Rodrick Stewart is enjoying a rebirth in his senior year.  Everyone's waiting for consistently strong efforts like the one Darrell Arthur displayed against Northern Arizona.  Watch for his ratings to climb as he gets settled in, but for now, he still needs to keep his shooting percentages up.  Sasha Kaun and Cole Aldrich are not counted on for much scoring output, but if they can grab rebounds, block shots, and make the shots from good setup passes, they will be fine.  Russell Robinson is off to a disappointing start, and now we learn he has tendinitis.  If this is a nagging injury, it could be a major drag on his contribution levels.  Fortunately, he's not an offensive go-to guy.  His perimeter shooting has always been suspect, so if he can exercise a bit more discipline, taking only the open shot, he could improve his efficiency.  Finally, Brandon Rush continues his recovery efforts.  He should play about 20 minutes against Arizona.  There's no telling how well he'll play given the understandable level of rustiness he feels. 

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Game Projections

(Not a prediction.  Read more details in "FAQ & Terms" section.)

Projected Boxscore

(Not enough game data for accuracy)

Projected Four Factor Performance

• eFG% - Advantage KU 59-53%.
• TURNOVERS - Advantage KU 23-15%
• OFFENSIVE REBOUNDING - Advantage KU 39-31%
• FREETHROW RATE (FTM/FGA) - Advantage UA 27-23%
  
• OVERALL - Shooting and turnovers will provide the necessary boost for a fairly comfortable KU victory.

Kansas Players Projection

• Highest Game Impact (cPSAN): Mario Chalmers
  
• Highest Efficiency (cPSAN70): Tyrel Reed
• Most likely to play more efficiently than season-to-date (projected cPSAN70 - season cPSAN70): Tyrel Reed, Mario Chalmers
  
• Most likely to play less efficiently than season-to-date: Jeremy Case, Cole Aldrich
  

Sports and Numbers Projection: Kansas wins 86-69