Sports and Numbers

Texas A&M at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Due to time constraints, this will be very brief.

TAMU has the two most efficient players on the court, Joseph Jones and Josh Carter.  Together with Kavaliauskas and Law, it is difficult to pick any one or two players to focus the defense on.  In this game, TAMU is expected to hit a high percentage of its 3FG's, so look for Carter and Law to light up the scoreboard if KU's not careful.  Kirk isn't a bad shooter from deep either (37%).

KU may not have the super-efficient players TAMU has, but there's a bit more balance throughout the lineup.  KU has eight players averaging 8 minutes or more per game, while TAMU has only seven, and despite that discrepancy KU's lowest-rated player (Rush) has an efficiency that ranks #5 on TAMU's team.  Looking at overall season stats puts Julian Wright at the forefront of the Jayhawk contributors.  He often determines how well the team will play, so look for his mindset early.  If he's nonexistent, it may be a long day for the Jayhawks.  Chalmers is due for a breakout game, as he's been rather quiet in conference play compared to his pre-conference performances.  Still, he and Sherron Collins both are deadly three-point bombers when they're on.  Collins usually is on, as his playing time is gradually increasing.  Look for the trio of Robinson, Chalmers, and Collins to determine whether KU will have a good offensive day.  If they are turning the ball over, the defense will have to be near perfect to keep Kansas in the game.  Finally, Kaun and Arthur must shut down Jones.  They haven't been putting up too many numbers on the offensive end consistently of late, so either Jones has to be shut down or Kaun and Arthur have to combine for a healthy dose of points and rebounds.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Strengths and weaknesses table not provided here for this game but will return in future previews.

Game Outlook

Looking at overall season statistics, we might expect the following for this game:

• KU should limit TAMU's offensive rebounding.
• KU should not have many of its inside shots blocked.
• TAMU will make a high percentage of its 3FG's.
• TAMU will force KU into a higher than usual TO rate.
• When TAMU has the ball, it is a roughly even matchup, but when KU has the ball, it favors TAMU's defense somewhat more.

This would suggest that shooting percentage and freethrows will be most key for TAMU's ability to score.  Fortunately for the Aggies, they are one of the best in the country at shooting (#5 - 56.4 eFG%) and freethrows (#59 FT rate and 74.8% from line).  They are, however, going against the #12 eFG% defense on the road.  So, it's no walk in the park.  Nevertheless, that gives us two keys to the game for TAMU.

The Jayhawks are bound to struggle a bit on offense if this becomes it a slow-it-down affair.  What KU can take heart in is knowing that TAMU hasn't played very good offensive teams this season.  Their opponents' average offensive efficiency ranks #190 in the country (KU's is #72).  Most times that TAMU has faced a quality opponent, they haven't done a great job on defense.  In each of their three losses, they surrendered at least 49 eFG% and 1.03 pts/poss.  In wins against Kansas State and Winthrop, they surrendered about 50 eFG% each game.  Even though they rank #4 in adjusted defensive efficiency, the adjustments can only do so much.  When the chips have been down this season, TAMU has not played their toughest defense.  So, I would expect that KU will have an easier time on offense than the numbers appear to indicate.

Still, since KU struggles against even mediocre competition, the Jayhawks will have to give themselves ample opportunities on offense by making their freethrows (I expect them to get plenty of opportunities, given TAMU's scoring distribution figures above) and minimizing TO's, which are expected to be somewhat high.

The Last 10 games analysis above indicates that KU's momentum and home performance are significantly better than TAMU's when adjusting for the homecourt advantage.  We all know that Kansas has a tendency to relax when it can, and since they know this is huge (Rush indicated that the Big 12 champion would basically be this game's winner), I would not bet on Self's squad showing up flat.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 69-63.