Sports and Numbers

Home arrow NCAA Basketball arrow Kansas Basketball arrow Game Previews arrow 2006-07 Season arrow Preview: Nebraska at Kansas

Kansas Shortcuts

Main Menu

Home
NCAA Basketball
Numbers Up
FAQ & Terms
Newsletter
Radio
Links
Contact

Newsletter

 

Recent KU Game Previews

Preview: Nebraska at Kansas Print E-mail
Feb 17, 2007

Nebraska at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

 KansasNebraska

Talent Indicators

  
Div I Records22-413-9
AP Rank9NR
Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)		466
Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)		878
RPI1680
Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)		vs Florida (# 2) W 82-80 (OT)
vs Southern Cal (# 29) W 72-62		vs Creighton (# 43) W 73-61
@ Missouri (# 50) W 66-61

Predictions
This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.

  
Vegas OddsmakersWin by 16
Est. Projection: 74-58		 
Prediction Tracker
(Average of several power ratings)		Win by 14.3 
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)Win by 15.4 
Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)		Win 72-57
94% chance of victory		 
Last 10 Games (Venue Adjusted)
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 7 home/non-home games, whichever pertains to this game + 3 other most recent games regardless of location.  If 7 venue-appropriate games not available, fewer than 10 total games are used.)		Win by 17
99.9% chance of victory		 
Weighted Average of All Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)		Win by 15.6
Est. Projection: 73-57		 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative Season


Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")
 

PLAYERePSAN70ePSAN
Julian Wright6.58115.14
Darnell Jackson5.7155.63
Brady Morningstar*5.428.73
Sherron Collins4.5164.63
Russell Robinson4.3782.07
Mario Chalmers4.1979.99
Darrell Arthur3.7847.80
Brandon Rush3.5275.01
Sasha Kaun3.4838.08
Jeremy Case*2.094.09
Rodrick Stewart*1.564.17
Matt Kleinmann*-1.77-2.14
Brennan Bechard*-2.57-0.83
Brad Witherspoon*-13.67-3.22

* Rating not based on enough data.

Nebraska

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")
 

PLAYERcPSAN70cPSAN
Aleks Maric5.1273.18
Choul Laam*4.170.84
Jim Ledsome3.7912.61
Marcus Perry3.4538.63
Ryan Anderson3.3641.67
Charles Richardson Jr.3.1159.84
Jay-R Strowbridge0.675.25
Paul Velander0.030.20
Sek Henry-0.42-5.41
Mike Smith*-0.55-1.00
Chris Balham*-0.70-1.61
Kyle Marks*-1.30-3.10
Kris Douse-3.03-4.63
Nick Krenk*-3.10-2.16
Glenn White*-3.82-1.12
Ben Nelson*-5.99-0.81

* Rating not based on enough data.


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Not included here.  See my free Phog.net article for conference-only player ratings and analysis.

 

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category

 

Clear Advantage for Kansas

No Clear Advantage

Clear Advantage for Nebraska

Nebraska OREB**

 

 

Nebraska % own 2FGA's blocked**

 

 

Kansas 3pt FG%

 

 

Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**

 

 

Kansas OREB**

 

 

Kansas eFG%**

 

 

Nebraska TO rate**

 

 

 

Nebraska PTS/Poss

 

 

Nebraska FT%

 

 

Nebraska % Poss STL by Opp

 

 

Kansas FT%

 

 

Kansas PTS/Poss

 

 

Kansas 2pt FG%

 

 

Nebraska 2pt FG%

 

 

Nebraska eFG%

 

 

Nebraska FT Rate

 

 

Kansas % Poss STL by Opp

 

 

Nebraska 3pt FG%

 

 

 

Kansas TO rate**

 

 

Kansas FT Rate

 

Nebraska will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt
Kansas plays faster tempo than Nebraska

 

Game Outlook

Some things we can reasonably expect from the statistical analyses above:

  • Rebounding should be owned by Kansas on both sides.
  • If there's any blocking in this game, it will be NU shots that are swatted away.
  • Both teams will turn it over frequently.
  • Kansas should shoot well from the floor, particularly from behind the arc.
  • KU might not use the freethrow line very much.

The macro-level indicators for this game certainly make it seem like a walk in the park for the Jayhawks.  If NU can play with the relaxed attitude they did for most of the second half of the game in Lincoln, and Kansas fails to show fire against a weaker opponent, the game could end up closer than expected.  It should not be in question with 10-12 minutes to go, however.  If it is, then KU probably didn't bring its "A" game, and someone on NU's team has been going gangbusters from 3FG.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 73-57.

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

KU has a tendency to let teams get hot from the perimeter in Allen Fieldhouse.NU to shoot 38% from 3FG  
NU practically abandons the ball when they miss a shot on offense, so don't count on O-REB% to be any help.  And they are expected to TO often, so that leaves only two factors - eFG% and FT rateNU to shoot at least 48 eFG% and outscore KU at the FT line by 8 points.  
NU must get off to a better start to have a chance.NU within 5 points around the 10:00 1st half mark.