Sports and Numbers

Kansas at Texas Tech (Lubbock, TX)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

You absolutely must talk about Jarrius Jackson and Martin Zeno when scouting the Red Raiders.  Combined, the two have played in roughly 87% of the team's minutes, used up about 52% of the team's possessions, and taken 53% of the team's shots from the field.  In my Big 12 Honors from last season, Jarrius Jackson won the award for "Most Indispensable Player" because his total impact rating was the most unusually high for his team.  Let's see what these two players bring to the table "by the numbers."

Jackson takes 30% of the team's shots and makes an impressive 53.3 eFG% despite being the focus of opponents' defenses.  Not surprisingly, at 6-1, he's not too big a factor on the boards (4.3% of OR, 8.3% of DR).  He gets to the FT line with impressive regularity, however.  He's taken 98 FTA in just 18 games (averages nearly 4.5 attempts per game), and he makes good with 84% shooting at the line.  Basically, when Jackson shoots the ball, it has a great chance of finding the hoop.  He doesn't have a terribly high AST rate, which makes sense given his star status and the fact that he's basically always shooting the ball.  The good news is that he's not making passes on the rare occasions he decides to distribute the ball, with a microscopic 9.1% TO rate (#12 in the country).  He has no blocks but does swipe steals about 3% of possessions.  So, he's really the quintessential star scorer who's dependable at the line and doesn't appear to make too many mistakes.  Numbers can't tell us much about his defense though.  Given TTU's #72-rated defense, I wouldn't expect that the star offensive player is expending much energy on his defense.  That's one of the reasons his team doesn't have a higher power rating, and it's also a reason why Jackson's overall efficiency rating (cPSAN70) isn't in the range of some of KU's star players.

Zeno is a solid wing player.  He uses about the same number of possessions as Jackson (25%) but doesn't shoot quite as well, so his efficiency is a bit worse.  He does, however, make up for it with some decent AST numbers (21.% of his possessions used), and he also chips in a fair number of defensive rebounds (13.8% of available D-Reb).  His biggest asset though is probably his work at the freethrow line.  He has attempted a staggering 133 freethrows in 18 games (over 7 attempts per game).  At 75% from the line, it's a good thing he gets there, too.  He's not much of a 3-pt shooter, although he's hit 3-of-7.

Aside from Jackson and Zeno, the contributions start tailing off.  There are a host of players in the 2.00-3.00 range of cPSAN70 efficiency ratings, but none have made a tremendous overall positive impact.  Darryl Dora does stand out as one who's contributed slightly more than the others.  Not that he's done anything spectacular, but he doesn't turn it over and shoots 51 eFG%.  KU fans probably haven't forgotten his game-winning 3-pt shot from two seasons ago in Lubbock.

Although Esmir Rizvic is out with an injury to his face, he wasn't providing a whole lot in the boxscore.

Kansas counters with a fairly balanced 8-man rotation of inside and outside players.  Mario Chalmers has been the most consistently positive performer for the Jayhawks over the season, but he didn't play down the stretch against Missouri because he was having a bad night.  No one should worry that there's anything wrong with Chalmers or that Bill Self has even lost confidence in him.  It's simply a matter of having three very important players who can play the 1-2 spots, so he has the luxury of picking the two who are having the best games for crunch time.  Chalmers shoots an incredible 57 eFG% for a shooting guard, uses 23% of possessions on AST, and is a premier "thief extraordinaire" with steals on 5.8% of possessions (#8 in the country).

Right up there with Chalmers in overall season efficiency is Julian Wright.  Though he has a tendency to take games off, he has had some spectacular outings to compensate and leave him with this solid average.  Which Julian will show up in Lubbock?  Considering that this game will probably be decided inside the paint, it better be the Dr. Jekyll side.  No matter how you look at it though, for the season Wright sizzles from the field at 56.6 eFG%, is a prominent rebounder on offense (10.4% of available) and defense (21.1% of available), with a strong blocking presence inside (#116) and even STL (nearly 3% of possessions).  What he struggles with mightily is turnovers.  Unfortunately 24% of his possessions used are for TO's, which is quite unimpressive for a player who isn't a point guard.  Against TTU, Wright will have to be careful as the Red Raiders are one of the better teams at forcing steals.

Jackson, Kaun, and Arthur round out the Top 5 in efficiency for Kansas.  It's surprising considering that most people always felt the Jayhawk backcourt would be what carries them this season.  Jackson has really been hitting the boards (17-18% of available on both ends), gets to the FT line fairly often and shoots a spectacular 58 eFG% overall.  Kaun has been mostly fantastic the last several weeks, now shooting 58 eFG%, getting about 12% of all available boards and a fantastic 9.6% BLK rate.  After an extended slump, Arthur is beginning to find his groove again.  His nifty post moves haven't quite returned, but he's hitting a higher percent from the field, getting back to rebounding and being a force inside with blocks.  For the season, he's shooting about 53 eFG%, grabbing about 13% of available rebounds, minimizing TO's and ranking #23 in BLK rate (whopping 11.2% of possessions).

Sherron Collins had a career-best performance in his last game, which some believe warrants an insertion into the starting lineup.  We'll have to see about that, but it definitely heralds more playing time for the rookie.  Collins leads the team with 58.4 eFG% and 40.8% on 3FG's.  Though he doesn't bang inside on the offensive glass, he grabs a very surprising 11% of available defensive rebounds!  His AST:TO ratio is fair, and he's not yet much of a factor in terms of steals.

Robinson continues to shoot slightly better than he has most season, though his overall numbers are still miserable (41 eFG% and 10-34 on 3FG's).  He made some brilliant plays down the stretch in a nailbiter on Big Monday, but he also threw the ball away unnecessarily with just eleven seconds left.  Regardless, Robinson gets to the freethrow line, has a solid AST:TO ratio (2.4-to-1), gets plenty of steals (3.5% of poss) and has the capability on any possession to get a key rebound, block, assist, steal, drive, dish or jumper.  The players say he's tough, and he has his coach's support.  Robinson will be key to this team's success this season whether anyone wants to believe it or not.

It's rare to see a leading scorer and preseason All-American candidate rated as the player with the lowest efficiency.  But that's what it is with Rush.  He's actually improved many of his numbers over the last month or so, most notably shooting where he's now above 50 eFG%.  But for a player with as many minutes as Rush has played, he still isn't doing as much as the other players.  He only has 10.8% AST rate, 0.6% STL rate and shoots 66% from the line (where he leads the team with attempts).  Now, that's not a lot to complain about considering the positives he brings to the table, not the least of which is one-on-one defense that can't be captured in the boxscore.  But it's enough to keep his rating in the solid-but-not-great realm.  And on a team that's performing as well as KU this season, with plenty of talent, that just doesn't put him very high in efficiency.  In terms of total impact, Rush ranks fourth on the team by virtue of playing so many minutes.  Add to that his defensive prowess, and you can see that his overall impact to this team is one of the most important, even though he's not doing it the most efficiently.

Highlighted Efficiency Statistics
(from Pomeroy)

Not presented for this game.  Will be in future previews.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

Game Outlook

Not presented for this game.  Will be in future previews.

Don't be surprised if this game is closer than it appears by the numbers.  KU does some things worse on the road, and with a scorer like Jarrius Jackson at home and Bob Knight's preparation, anything can happen.  KU will need to minimize mistakes and hope to force TTU out of their normal game.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 70-68.