Sports and Numbers

Kansas at Nebraska (Lincoln, NE)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Player analysis provided not provided here but will be here in future write-ups.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Strengths and weaknesses table not provided here for this game but will return in future previews.

Game Outlook

KU is a different team on the road, and Nebraska is a different team at home.  Most of the season trends are going to be skewed in the Cornhuskers' direction as a result.  First, let's look at what those season trends would dictate, without taking into account the venue for this game:

• KU should block a lot of NU's shots inside without getting blocked much when it has the ball.
• KU should shoot very well from the field, both inside and outside the arc.
• Nebraska shouldn't have too many second-chance opportunities to score.
• Both teams will turn the ball over with high frequency.
• The bigger mismatch should be KU's offense against NU's defense.

Sounds like a recipe for an easy KU victory, right?  But KU doesn't shut down opponents' offensive rebounds on the road much and even struggled at home against lowly Colorado.  Blocks are less frequent on the road for KU.  Margin of turnovers has been much less in favor of Kansas the last several games, so it's easier to imagine that NU would win that battle or at least stay even.  And since the overall efficiency numbers show NU's offense having something of a chance against KU's defense, then it could be a long day for the Jayhawks, who have a tendency to make life difficult for themselves on offense.

Nebraska is only 1-4 in its last five games, but they split the two home games during that stretch, including an understandable one-point loss to Texas.  With a player the caliber of Maric, a strong home record, and KU's inconsistency, the Jayhawks should actually be only a slim favorite in this one.  What actually happens tomorrow is a product of chance, so even though KU should be a slim favorite, I am going with the Cornhuskers for the upset.  Not what I want as a KU fan, but this one just doesn't smell right.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Nebraska wins 65-63.