Sports and Numbers

Kansas at Kansas State (Manhattan, KS)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Not included here.  See my free Phog.net article for conference-only player ratings and analysis.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

See "FAQ & Terms" section for explanation

Game Outlook

Some things we can reasonably expect from the statistical analyses above:

• KSU should struggle shooting the ball inside or outside.
• Although Kansas may turn the ball over some, they usually won't be steals by KSU.
• Kansas should get plenty of second-chance opportunities.
• KSU should get blocked somewhat frequently inside.
• KSU should get to the freethrow line quite often, but they may not make a very high percentage once there.
• Kansas will likely shoot very well inside the arc but may struggle from outside the 3-point line.
• Kansas should have a more clear advantage on defense than when it has the ball.
• This could be a somewhat uptempo game but not too much.

Given KU's propensity to break streaks this season (in a bad way), it wouldn't be a shock to see the Wildcats pull off the upset tonight.  That would still have to be considered the less likely scenario, however.  The odds favor the Jayhawks.  Whether we should expect a nailbiter or a little more comfortable victory depends upon whether Kansas will continue its recent dominant ways or perhaps show up flat.  The Jayhawks haven't really played a "bad game" since Jan 20 against Texas Tech.  Since then, they've dominated everyone except Texas A&M, who they would have defeated if not for a 3-minute stretch to close the game.  KSU, meanwhile, has given up more than 1.12 pts/possession (NCAA avg = about 1) to four of its last six opponents.  Granted, they won two of those games, but it's usually a safe bet that if Kansas scores more than 1 point per possession, they'll beat you.  (Texas A&M only exception this season)

To shut down Kansas tonight, KSU must control the defensive boards and cause some turnovers.  Both the KU offense and KSU defense most closely correlate efficiencies with eFG% and TO rate.  It probably would help if KSU made its own field goals, since Kansas might try to run off missed shots.  K-State will most likely struggle shooting the ball from the field, so they absolutely must make the Jayhawks pay at the freethrow line.

It's definitely possible to see it end tonight, but "The Streak" should be favored to continue another season.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 71-63.