Sports and Numbers

Kansas at Iowa State (Ames, IA)

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Mike Taylor checks in as the leading scorer at 16 PTS, 4 AST and 4 REB per game, shooting 43.6% from downtown.  But he's also using a whopping 33% of his team's possessions, of which 30% are turnovers.  He's also taking 30% of the team's shots but shooting 48.3 eFG%, well below the national average of 50%.  The numbers argue for a below-average performer.

It's really Wesley Johnson whose numbers look strongest.  He shoots 51 eFG%, strong rebounder on offense and defense, gets to the FT line a lot, and blocks well (4.1% of possessions).  The stats aren't stellar, but he is the only one on the Cyclones team with solid numbers.

Jessan Gray and Cory Johnson play a much more limited role but are shooting the ball exceptionally well (56 and 59 eFG%, respectively).

Rahshon Clark was 1st Team on my statistical ratings for the conference last season.  He hasn't played anywhere near that level this season. He's shooting only 45.5 eFG% this season versus 57% last season.  He is still doing a terrific job on defensive rebounds (19.2% of available) and blocks (3.1% of possessions).

Dodie Dunson and Corey McIntosh have both struggled this season.  McIntosh gets to the FT line fairly efficiently, but he is shooting extremely poorly from the field (40.5 eFG%).  Dunson shoots around 45 eFG%, still very low, but he counters by keeping his TO's low.

For the Jayhawks, it's clear that Mario Chalmers is playing better than anyone else on the team.  He showed against Oklahoma State that he can even control a game without scoring a whole lot.  Mario is sizzling from the field, getting a fair number of assists, and of course swiping the ball at a torrid pace (about 5.5% of possessions).  He's on a prolonged hot streak, so a return to Earth is bound to happen at some point.

Julian Wright is up and down, but fortunately the ups have been higher than the downs have been low.  He's a do-it-all type who's been shooting a remarkable 57 eFG%, rebounding exceptionally well on both ends of the floor, and intimidating opponents with blocked shots on 6.3% of possessions played.

The other starting frontcourt player, Sasha Kaun, is really coming into his own.  Coming off probably his best game ever, Kaun looks to provide a steady diet of rebounding, blocks, and conversions on alley-oops and layups that come from superior positioning.  He doesn't play many minutes per game, so he'll never get the sexy numbers star players get, but at the end of the day, he always seems to be playing very efficiently.

With "King Kaun" back on track, let's address King Kong, aka Darnell Jackson.  Post-fastbreak chest thumping aside, Jackson provides a tremendous boost off the bench.  He's an extremely efficient rebounder, even though he may not do it with the most flair.  He may disappear from time to time, but it's rare to see him making all kinds of mistakes or anything.  When he is on, he provides a very interesting combination of power and finesse.

Early-season leader, Darrell Arthur, has been on extended leave of absence, or so it has seemed.  It's a good thing Kaun has recovered nicely, since Arthur has not rebounded much lately, and his shot (even when going in) just doesn't look good.  At the line, his freethrows are off.  That's probably the best indicator that he's mentally not there, as deviation from one's typical freethrow percentage are one of the best signs of psychological stress, at least in my opinion.  Against Iowa State, his rebounding services will be sorely needed.

Russell Robinson has put together a few improved offensive games recently, at least in terms of shooting.  He somewhat disappeared in the second half against Oklahoma State, but for the most part he is playing a little better since his recent slump.  Sherron Collins has become one of the best creators on the team.  He can turn a possession that's going nowhere into something positive just by dribbling and finding some openings.  Once his turnovers start diminishing, his value to this team will grow in leaps and bounds.  He's already an incredibly important part of the outside shooting attack.

Brandon Rush is on a steady upswing and can't be ignored by any opponent in game planning.  He's a defensive stopper and, when he's on, an offensive juggernaut.  With his size and strength, he can get shots that other players can't.  Now that he's shooting above 50 eFG%, his offense is no longer a liability, and we can finally see Rush take over during stretches of games.  He very well could still have more room to improve this season than most players on the team, and that's scary for KU opponents.

Highlighted Efficiency Statistics
(from Pomeroy)

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Some future games will have this section presented here again.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

Game Outlook

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It's clear that Kansas should be the favorite, but road games against anyone in the Big 12 are never automatic.  The ingredients for a Cyclones Upset Special tomorrow would have to be:

• Hot 3-pt shooting
• Forcing TO's by Kansas
• Offensive rebounding

To that end, the pressure will be on Mike Taylor for 3-pt shooting and steals, Rahshon Clark for rebounding and steals, and Wesley Johnson for offensive rebounding.  Kansas will need step up the defensive rebounding (Julian Wright, Darnell Jackson), put a hand in the face of ISU perimeter shooters, and hang on to the ball (Sherron Collins, Russell Robinson, Julian Wright).

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 70-60.