Sports and Numbers

Home arrow NCAA Basketball arrow Kansas Basketball arrow Game Previews arrow 2006-07 Season arrow Preview: Kansas at DePaul

Newsletter

 
Preview: Kansas at DePaul Print E-mail
Dec 2, 2006

Kansas at DePaul (Chicago, IL)

 KansasDePaul

Talent Indicators

  
Div I Records6-11-4
Sagarin Power Ranking31142
Pomeroy Pythagorean Rating3129
RPI
(not a good judge of strength, only used for rough estimate of strength of opponent)
83258
Best wins this season (Pyth. Rating)vs Florida (#1) W 82-80 (OT)vs Eastern Illinois (#313) W 71-41

Predictions
This section gives you a flavor of what different prediction techniques indicate for this game.

  
Vegas OddsmakersWin 75-66 
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)Win by 13 
Analysis of Variance
(Uses level and consistency of team performance - power ratings - still not very accurate until all NCAA teams are 'connected')
98% chance of victory 
Pomeroy (Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)Win 80-59
97% chance of victory
 
 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season


Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")
 

NAMEePSAN70ePSAN
Darrell Arthur10.4839.61
Julian Wright8.0441.40
Darnell Jackson4.7415.53
Russell Robinson4.7324.35
Brady Morningstar3.022.91
Mario Chalmers2.9513.12
Sherron Collins2.307.80
Jeremy Case*2.201.39
Brandon Rush1.427.52
Rodrick Stewart*1.141.55
Matt Kleinmann*0.560.51
Brennan Bechard*-0.80-0.08
Sasha Kaun-4.55-5.09
Brad Witherspoon*-5.86-0.43

* Rating not based on enough data.

DePaul

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")
 

PLAYERcPSAN70cPSAN
Thijin Moses*6.822.96
Lorenzo Thompson*5.262.28
Wilson Chandler2.3910.58
Marcus Heard1.845.67
Cliff Clinkscales1.261.87
Wesley Green1.081.58
Karron Clarke0.572.04
Draelon Burns0.250.74
Will Walker0.240.65
Sammy Mejia-1.13-4.84
Jabari Currie-2.93-7.57

* Rating not based on enough data.

 


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Having just returned from a trip, I won't get too much into this.  DePaul appears to rely most on contributions from Wilson Chandler and Marcus Heard.  Neither is particularly efficient, however, as you might expect given DePaul's poor performance this season.  Sammy Mejia and Jabari Currie have had the most negative impact, the former mostly because of 4-21 shooting from behind the arc.  Other than that, Mejia actually isn't performing too badly.  The problem is that the last time the senior guard shot anywhere over 30% from three-point land was his freshman season.  Chandler is the consistent scoring threat inside, and he's only a sophomore at 6-8 and 230 pounds.  He may have a rough time because of foul trouble against KU's much deeper front line.

Nevertheless, there are plenty of big bodies for DePaul to challenge KU's inside strength.  Chandler, Heard, and Green will be the major tests for Darrell Arthur and Julian Wright.  It shouldn't be too big a "test" though, as the athleticism for those two should cause matchup problems for the Blue Demons.

KU's backcourt has been coming around a bit more of late.  Robinson has been solid pretty much the whole season, while Chalmers is just now coming into his own in terms of perimeter shooting.  He has also been driving into the lane with success.  Once KU starts facing stronger opponents, the backcourt may have to step up their game more, as inside shots get more and more tough to come by.

A couple of players who have interesting storylines are Rush and Kaun.  Rush has performed below preseason expectations all season long, but his strong work on defense and clutch performance in a win against Florida continue to show his value to the team.  If he breaks through with a strong and efficient offensive game to go with all the other things he's doing, his bandwagon will start to fill up once more.  Kaun has been off ever since his return from a knee injury.  In limited minutes, he has shown very little offense or defense and has missed some easy dunks.  From what Coach Self says, Sasha should be fine after some time to get reconditioned and readjusted.  It will be interesting to see if this game provides that opportunity.

 

 

Highlighted Efficiency Statistics

Kansas

DePaul

  • KU has the #10 offense and #13 defense.
  • KU is #10 in offensive rebounding.
  • KU is #27 in eFG% allowed, and #16 in 2FG% allowed
  • KU is #29 in % of opponent's possessions blocked
  • KU ranks #291 in % of FG's that are 3FG
  • DU has the #113 offense and #174 defense
  • DU ranks #7 in preventing opponents' offensive rebounds
  • DU ranks #291 in opponents' eFG%
  • DU ranks #261 in use of the FT line
  • DU doesn't get many shots blocked (#50)
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • On offense, KU relies very heavily on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG's, while its opponents are roughly balanced across the board.
  • On offense, DU relies very heavily on 2FG's at the expense of FT's, while its opponents rely more heavily on 3FG's somewhat at the expense of FT's.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

See "FAQ & Terms" for explanation

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right.

 

Clear Advantage for KansasNo Clear AdvantageClear Advantage for DePaul
Kansas Strength - Kansas 2pt FG%  
Kansas eFG%  
Kansas TO rate  
DePaul FT Rate  
Kansas Strength - Kansas Points Per Possession  
DePaul FT%  
Kansas 3pt FG%  
DePaul OREB  
Kansas Strength - DePaul % Poss STL by Opp  
 Kansas % Poss Blocked by Opp 
Kansas Strength - DePaul Points Per Possession  
 DePaul 3pt FG% 
Kansas Strength - DePaul eFG%  
 DePaul TO rate 
 DePaul 2pt FG% 
 DePaul % Poss Blocked by Opp 
 Kansas FT Rate 
 Kansas OREB 
 Kansas FT% 
 Kansas % Poss STL by Opp 

 

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted
 
Kansas plays faster tempo than DePaul

 

Game Outlook

If there are any clear advantages in this game, they point in the favor of Kansas.  DePaul's best hope is to minimize those advantages for KU, which are:

  • KU's shooting from the field
  • KU's ability to hang on to the ball
  • Keeping DePaul from exploiting the FT line effectively
  • DePaul's inability to get second-chance opportunities
  • KU's ability to steal the ball from DePaul

Kansas may be poised to have a very efficient offensive game, as they will likely shoot well from the field, not turn it over too often, and have shown a strong ability to grab offensive rebounds all season long.  Too many weapons for Kansas.  The only thing that is the "X factor" here is the venue.  If KU loses poise on the road, anything could happen, but that's not the likely event.

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 79-67.

 

 

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)

DePaul has shut down offensive rebounds for opponents before, so if KU struggles shooting, the offensive rebounds better be thereIf KU shoots less than 50% eFG, KU to grab at least 35% of available O-Reb (calculated as KU O-Reb / [KU O-Reb + DU D-Reb])  
Though not a clear advantage for either side, one of the less favorable categories for KU is DePaul's ability to steal from them.  On the road, KU may be careless with the ball.DePaul to have STL on 12% of KU poss.