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Preview: Colorado at Kansas Print E-mail
Mar 1, 2006

Colorado at Kansas (Lawrence, KS)

 

Kansas

Colorado

Talent Indicators

    
Div I Records 19-7 18-7
RPI 45 48
Sagarin Power Ranking 18 34
Pomeroy Power Ranking 10
Last 5: #20		 41
Last 5: #118
Best games this season (RPI) vs Oklahoma (#12) W59-58
vs Kentucky (#42) W73-46		 vs Oklahoma (#12) W84-75
vs NC Wilmington (#36) W73-54

Predictions

    
Vegas Oddsmakers Win by 9  
Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor) Win by 7.5  
Pomeroy Ratings Win by 9  

 

Pre-Game Interesting Stats

Stat

Result

Edge
CU takes about 37% of its shots from behind the arc, KU only 27%    
Overall CU opponents take about 1 more FTA per game than CU, but on the road, that differential is 9.5    
In conference play, CU has scored about the same number of points as its opponents, while KU has outscored opponents by 12.4 (despite the 25-point Texas loss)    
Although it's about even overall, during conference play, KU averages about 10 steals per game vs CU's 7 spg.    
In the last 5 games, CU is shooting only 39% from the field    

 

PSAN-Related Player Ratings

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas Ratings
ePSAN (totals)
ePSAN70 (per 70 possessions)

NAME ePSAN70 ePSAN
Sasha Kaun 5.15 62.77
Julian Wright 4.88 63.64
Brandon Rush 4.00 83.28
Mario Chalmers 3.98 69.42
Matt Kleinmann* 3.96 3.16
Darnell Jackson 3.93 32.30
C.J. Giles 3.29 33.51
Russell Robinson 3.21 59.50
Jeremy Case* 2.55 8.61
Christian Moody 2.41 19.24
Stephen Vinson* 1.10 3.95
Jeff Hawkins 1.03 12.19
Rodrick Stewart* 0.46 0.56

* Played fewer than 20% of possessions.
Rating not based on enough data.

 

Colorado Ratings
cPSAN (totals)
cPSAN70 (per 70 possessions)

PLAYER cPSAN70 cPSAN
Chase Perkowski* 13.37 2.43
Kyle Carder* 5.81 4.23
Scott Senger* 4.88 9.78
Richard Roby 4.06 79.23
Martane Freeman 3.48 36.83
Billy Boidock* 3.45 1.08
Chris Copeland 3.06 47.45
Glean Eddy 1.98 10.90
Andy Osborn 1.89 25.95
Dominique Coleman 0.44 4.13
Marcus King-Stockton 0.36 2.81
Jayson Obazuaye 0.33 3.84
Julius Ashby 0.12 0.93
Marcus Hall 0.11 1.96
Lamont Arrington* -0.39 -0.71
Calvin Williams* -1.76 -4.20
Antoine McGee* -2.31 -9.38

* Played fewer than 20% of possessions.
Rating not based on enough data.


Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Sasha Kaun will be the most efficient (ePSAN70) player to step on the court, and Brandon Rush will be the most accomplished (ePSAN).  KU has seven players rated over +3.00, while CU only has three.  All five KU starters have ePSAN scores of +50 or higher, while only one CU player has a cPSAN meeting that criterion, meaning KU has many players with significant contributions over the course of the season.  There is no question who has superior talent in this matchup.  Kansas has no business losing this game, its last home game of the season.

Efficiency Analysis

Kansas

Colorado
  • KU plays at a brisk tempo (#78), with an excellent offense (#42) and nation-leading defense
  • KU wins the shooting game by having a strong eFG% (#56) and holding opponents to the 2nd-lowest rating in the country
  • On offense, KU really struggles by turning the ball over way too often (#225) and using the freethrow line as a weapon (#204)
  • Though shooting defense is its main defensive strength, KU does a great job of limiting its opponents from using the FT line (#55) and a great job forcing turnovers (#58) as well as an above-average job in preventing offensive rebounds (#102)
  • KU is one of the country's strongest offensive rebounding teams (#19)
  • KU has the #1-rated 2FG% defense
  • KU ranks #24 in blocking shots per possession but is only about average at avoiding being blocked (#131)

 
  • CU plays at an extremely fast tempo (#22), with a very efficient offense (#30) and solid defense (#67)
  • On offense, CU is one of the worst in the country at using the FT line, but they shoot above average (#89), avoid turnovers (#50) and rebound whatever they miss (#16 off reb)
  • On defense, CU is not below average at anything, with moderate strengths in opponents' eFG% (#74) and forcing turnovers (#90)
Other Efficiency Notes:
  • On offense, CU relies heavily on 3FG's at the expense of scoring FT's.
  • On offense, KU relies most heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents are fairly balanced, slightly favoring the 3FG.

Game Outlook

On offense, KU should shoot reasonably well and get lost of offensive rebounds when it misses.  They may struggle a bit with turnovers though.  Expect an average number of FT attempts (between 18 to 24).  Given the expected fast pace of the game, the guards will be more involved than usual.  I'd expect Rush and Chalmers to light up the scoreboard, with Robinson getting plenty of assists, especially on fast breaks.

CU's offense will likely depend on its ability to get offensive rebounds.  In Allen Fieldhouse, KU's opponents rarely shoot well, so this game will test the Buffs' offensive rebounding prowess.  If they can't do an above-average job of rebounding offensively, they stand no chance of winning this game, especially since their strength of avoiding turnovers will be tested against a hostile crowd and two of the best stealing defensive guards (Chalmers and Robinson).

Sports and Numbers Prediction: Kansas wins 84-69.

Pre-Game Keys to Watch For

Keys to Watch For

Metric

Result

Edge (Comments)
CU must rebound offensively, because they will likely miss a lot of shots % of available offensive rebounds grabbed by CU to be at least 35%    
KU could struggle with TO's, and if the game is as fast as expected, that could add up to a significant advantage for CU KU to have less than 23% of possessions result in TO (23% of avg game of 70 possessions = about 16 TO)    
CU's reliance on 3FG's means they may live or die by the three. CU to make at least 35% of its three-pointers