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NFL Preview: San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Written: Oct 19, 2006

San Diego at Kansas City

  San Diego Kansas City

Talent Indicators

    
Records 4-1 2-3
Sagarin Power Ranking #4 #20
Best performance this season
(derived from Sagarin ratings, not the same as "most important win")		 Road vs San Francisco
Won by 29		 Home vs San Francisco
Won by 41

Predictions

    
Vegas Oddsmakers Win by 5  
Sagarin Power Ratings (Pure Points) Win by 8.5  

 

Top 5 Factor Correlation Coefficients

 

San Diego

CORR TO PERFORMANCE
Pen Yds as % - Marg -0.89
Pass Yds Margin 0.86
3rd Down Conv Marg 0.83
Tot Yds Margin 0.81
Poss Time % 0.81
 
CORR TO VICTORY  
3rd Down Conv Marg 0.93
Pen Yds as % of Tot -0.92
Penalty Yds Margin -0.83
Pen Yds as % - Marg -0.82
Pass Yds Margin 0.68
 
CORR TO SPREAD  
3rd Down Conv Marg 0.93
Pen Yds as % of Tot -0.92
Penalty Yds Margin -0.83
Pen Yds as % - Marg -0.82
Pass Yds Margin 0.68
 

Kansas City

CORR TO PERFORMANCE
1st H Diff 0.99
P-att/(P+Run) Marg -0.96
INT thrown Margin -0.96
3rd Down Conv Marg 0.95
Tot Yds Margin 0.89
 
CORR TO VICTORY  
P-att/(P+Run) Opp 0.89
INT thrown Margin -0.81
TO's Margin -0.74
Penalty Yds Margin -0.72
Pass Yds Margin 0.71
 
CORR TO SPREAD  
P-att/(P+Run) -0.97
P-att/(P+Run) Marg -0.85
1st H Diff 0.83
Pen Yds as % of Tot -0.80
P-yds/(P+Run) -0.73
 
Represents the Top 5 of many statistical factors analyzed.  Measures the relationship between the factor and whether the team played as well as expected using power ratings (performance), whether the team won (victory), and whether the team beat the spread (spread).  Value of +1 means that it is perfectly correlated with the metric (performance, victory, spread), while a value of -1 means that is is perfectly inversely correlated.  Factors with P-yds/(P+Run) indicate "passing yards as % of total yards", while factors with P-att/(P+Run) are meant to measure "passing plays as % of total plays."  Factors with "Marg" (margin) measure the difference between the team and its opponent in that factor.  "1st H Diff" and "1st Q Diff" represent the score margin at the half and first quarter, respectively.  TO = turnover.  INT = interception.  Pen yds = Penalty yards.

 

Factor Correlation Overlaps
(possibly critical to game)

Performance

Victory

Against the Spread
  • 3rd Down Conversion Margin
  • Total Yards Margin
  • Penalty Yards Margin
  • Passing Yards Margin
  • Penalty Yards as Pct of Total Yds

Keys to the Game

  • All the critical correlation overlaps seem to fall into offensive categories and penalties.
  • 3rd downs and Total Yards may be a good indicator of who's playing a stronger game ("performance").
  • KC's significant underdog status means that a good "performance" may still not result in a victory over SD.  But a good performance by SD would, by extension, result in a SD victory.
  • The key to who wins the game, however, may be Penalty Yards and Passing Yards.
  • The team that beats the spread will likely be the one that keeps its Penalty Yds as % of Total Yds to below its usual (SD around 12%, KC around 14%)

Note: This preview represents an attempt to look at a wide variety of numbers in assessing the performance and tendencies of each team.  Obviously, there is a lot more to accurate prognostication than this.  Injuries, coaching moves, special home field advantages, weather, and other factors can be much more important in some cases.  This information is intended to be used in addition to other knowledge, and obviously not everyone is into the statistical minutia that I have presented here.


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