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NFL Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

Written: Oct 9, 2006

Kansas City at Pittsburgh

  Kansas City Pittsburgh

Talent Indicators

    
Records 2-2 1-3
Sagarin Power Ranking #12 #18
Best performance this season
(derived from Sagarin ratings, not the same as "most important win")		 Home vs San Francisco
Won by 41		 Road vs San Diego
Lost by 10

Predictions

    
Vegas Oddsmakers    
Sagarin Power Ratings (Pure Points)   Win by 0.5
Sports and Numbers Probability Model
(experimental model that analyzes level and consistency of performance from game-to-game and compares to opponent)		 62% chance of victory  

 

Top 5 Factor Correlation Coefficients

 

Kansas City

CORR TO PERFORMANCE
1st H Diff 0.99
P-att/(P+Run) Marg -0.96
3rd Down Conv Marg 0.93
TO's Margin -0.91
INT thrown Margin -0.87
 
CORR TO VICTORY  
P-att/(P+Run) Opp 0.91
INT thrown Margin -0.89
3rd Down Conv Marg 0.75
P-yds/(P+Run) Marg 0.74
P-yds/(P+Run) 0.72
 
CORR TO SPREAD  
P-att/(P+Run) -0.98
Pen Yds as % of Tot -0.96
P-att/(P+Run) Marg -0.87
1st H Diff 0.84
Rush Yds Margin 0.74
 

Pittsburgh

CORR TO PERFORMANCE
1st H Diff 0.99
3rd Down Conv Marg -0.67
TO's Margin -0.62
Fum Lost Margin -0.54
P-yds/(P+Run) 0.53
 
CORR TO VICTORY  
INT thrown Margin -1.00
P-yds/(P+Run) Opp 0.98
P-att/(P+Run) Marg -0.95
P-att/(P+Run) Opp 0.95
TO's Margin -0.93
 
CORR TO SPREAD  
INT thrown Margin -1.00
P-yds/(P+Run) Opp 0.98
P-att/(P+Run) Marg -0.95
P-att/(P+Run) Opp 0.95
TO's Margin -0.93
 
Represents the Top 5 of many statistical factors analyzed.  Measures the relationship between the factor and whether the team played as well as expected using power ratings (performance), whether the team won (victory), and whether the team beat the spread (spread).  Value of +1 means that it is perfectly correlated with the metric (performance, victory, spread), while a value of -1 means that is is perfectly inversely correlated.  Factors with P-yds/(P+Run) indicate "passing yards as % of total yards", while factors with P-att/(P+Run) are meant to measure "passing plays as % of total plays."  Factors with "Marg" (margin) measure the difference between the team and its opponent in that factor.  "1st H Diff" and "1st Q Diff" represent the score margin at the half and first quarter, respectively.  TO = turnover.  INT = interception.  Pen yds = Penalty yards.

 

Factor Correlation Overlaps
(possibly critical to game)

Performance

Victory

Against the Spread
  • 1st Half Scoring Margin
  • Turnover Margin

Note: 3rd down conversion % margin is not listed because the signs are in opposite directions.  Oddly enough, Pittsburgh has fared better as its 3rd down conversion % fared worse relative to the opponent's.
  • INT Thrown Margin
  • Opponents' Passing Plays as % of Total Plays
  • KC Passing Plays as % of Total Plays
  • Margin for Passing Plays as % of Total Plays

Keys to the Game

  • The team with the lead at halftime may be on its way to victory.
  • Turnovers, particularly interceptions, will be critical.
  • Whichever team can force the other to pass more often than run may have the advantage.
  • Pittsburgh has had a better propensity to force its opponents to pass than has KC.  Spread advantage may thus be to Pittsburgh.

Note: This preview represents an attempt to look at a wide variety of numbers in assessing the performance and tendencies of each team.  Obviously, there is a lot more to accurate prognostication than this.  Injuries, coaching moves, special home field advantages, weather, and other factors can be much more important in some cases.  This information is intended to be used in addition to other knowledge, and obviously not everyone is into the statistical minutia that I have presented here.


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