Sports and Numbers

This area features projections, not predictions.  The method assumes that the teams and players bring the same tendencies and performance into this game as they have in the games so far this season.  This method starts by computing the expected score using efficiency and tempo calculations.  It then applies every statistical category to the offenses and defenses based on the two teams' statistics.  For example, KU's shooting percentage is dictated by its own eFG% coming into the game as well as its opponent's defensive eFG% allowed.  Each team's statistics are adjusted for the level of opposing offense and defense it has faced, thus normalizing it to the level expected against average competition.  For example, Kansas shooting 59% against an average opposing defense of #250 would make its adjusted eFG% significantly lower.  Once the team statistics are determined, they are assigned to individual players based on a per-game weighted average.  So if there are 15 AST to divide up, the players with the highest AST/gm will get the most of those.  Whether or not a player will play in the game is determined using the expected outcome of the game.  If it is projected to be a blowout, some players who average fewer minutes will play, but as the margin becomes closer, the rotation will tighten.  After that, the projection is rounded and then run through several iterations of adjustments to bring every statistic as close in line to the average projection as possible.  The end result is what you see in the game previews.  I will continue to assess the value of this feature as the season progresses.

It would be ludicrous to assume that anyone could predict an exact boxscore that comes close to the actual result.  The best use of this is as a "baseline expectation."  That is, rather than saying that the boxscore is predicting that Darnell Jackson will score 13 points, it's best to say that Jackson performed below his average level going into this game if he scores below 13 points.  And even that would be inaccurate if the game turned out to be much slower tempo or Jackson played many more or fewer minutes than projected.