Big 12 Basketball Simulated Conference Race

January 11, 2006

Thru Games of Tue Jan 11, 2006

# Seasons	10000
Team	Avg Wins	Champ%	Outright %	Current W	Current L
Tex	13.3048	88.64%	75.78%	2	0
Colorado	10.295	11.10%	4.33%	0	1
Kansas	9.4614	6.85%	2.77%	0	0
Okla St	8.502	2.75%	0.91%	0	1
KSU	8.2921	2.38%	0.77%	0	1
Tex A&M	8.0372	2.02%	0.54%	1	0
Missouri	7.9843	1.46%	0.48%	2	0
Iowa St	7.9725	1.11%	0.22%	1	1
Okla	6.7308	0.39%	0.10%	0	2
Nebraska	6.0257	0.04%	0.02%	1	0
Tex Tech	5.2087	0.02%	0.02%	0	1
Baylor	4.1855	0.01%	0.00%	0	0

Analysis

Any hopes that Texas could be caught were put to rest with their convincing win at Iowa State. For now, it looks like a race for #2, with tonight's game between KU and Colorado being a huge factor. Kansas could really help itself with a win in Boulder, putting the Buffaloes into an 0-2 hole.

Oklahoma is the big surprise here. With dreams of a national title to start the season, current projections put them at 9th in the conference, and most likely out of the Big Dance. And before you object, take a look at their schedule and find anyone good that they've beaten to prove otherwise. The Sooners could turn things around, but it will be a big undertaking.

Missouri has raced to a 2-0 start with surprising wins against the Oklahoma schools. Given their #42 ranking in the last 5 games according to Pomeroy, it's not a huge stretch to say they stand a chance to finish in the upper half of the conference.

Texas has already beaten Colorado in its only meeting of the season, and it gets Kansas in Austin. So, there are no clear challenges to the Longhorns. Of course, we're only a game or two into the conference season, so anything could happen. Just don't hold your breath until you see some evidence for a suspenseful finish.

Some notes on the probability of getting a championship: (based on the simulated seasons above)

13 wins gets you about a 50% chance of sharing the title but only 44% outright
14 wins gets you a 77% chance of an outright win
Texas has a 4.4% chance of going undefeated - only other team with a chance was KU (4 times out of 10,000)
Most likely result for Kansas = 10-6 record

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Big 12 Basketball Simulated Conference Race

Analysis

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